News & Bulletins

2012-05-23
WORLD TREND AND NEWS - By AFEX

 

 

Wednesday 23rd May 2012 AFEX Market Watch  


It feels like February all over again. A great Monday night, followed by a shocking Tuesday night. After Germany and France being positive about Greece staying in the Eurozone, former Greek President Lucas Papademos came out and said that preparations were being made for Greece to exit the Euro. This obviously put the market on the back foot, with risk management being the emphasis in the market.

 

This negative sentiment in the Eurozone was enforced by the OECD releasing their latest set of GDP figures. The Euro region is expected to shrink 0.1% this year instead of posting growth of 0.2%, and is expected to expand 0.9% in 2013 instead of 1.4% in 2013. The IMF also came out and said that there needed to be more Quantitative Easing or Stimulus come out of the UK because inflation has slowed more than forecasted.

 

JPMorgan Chase & Co strengthened their forecasts for the USD against all major currencies (except the Yen) last night in a major sign that we could be looking at a new round of safe haven buying. It mentioned the Greek lurch towards an exit from the Eurozone and economic slowdowns in China and the USA were the main reasons for its forecasts, and this is expected to weaken both the AUD and NZD as investors exit carry trades and go back to home currencies.

 

 


Outlook

A few minor releases from Australia today, but expect Greek uncertainty and safe haven buying to dominate the market.

Data releases tonight could make the market a bit interesting with the suspicion that positive news won’t do much but negative news won’t be received very well. A big night for most currencies tonight and a big night for the Eurozone specifically on Thursday.

 


 

 

Key Data

Monday

JPY: All Industries Activity

 

Tuesday

NZD: Inflation Expectations

GBP: CPI, RPI y/y, Core CPI y/y, Public Sector Net Borrowing

EUR: Consumer Confidence

USD: Existing Home Sales, Richmond Manufacturing Index

 

Wednesday

AUD: CB leading index, MI leading Index

JPY: Monetary Policy Statement, Overnight Call Rate

GBP: Retail Sales, CBI Industrial Orders

EUR: Industrial New Orders, Current Account

CAD: Core Retail Sales, Retails Sales, Leading Index

USD: New Home Sales, HPI, Crude Oil Inventories

 

Thursday

NZD: Trade Balance

CNY: HSBC Flash Manufacturing

CHF: Trade Balance

EUR: French & German Flash Manufacturing, French & German Flash Services, Eurozone Flash Manufacturing, Eurozone Flash Services

GBP: Revised GDP, Mortgage Approvals

USD: Core Durable Goods, Unemployment Claims, Treasury Sec Geithner Speaks

 

Friday

JPY: Tokyo Core CPI, National Core CPI

EUR: Italian Retail Sales

USD: UoM Consumer Sentiment, UoM Inflation Expectations, Treasury Currency Report

 

 

 

 

Regards

 

Aaron Jackson

Account Executive

RG146 Accredited

Associated Foreign Exchange Australia Pty Ltd

Citigroup Centre, 2 Park Street, Suite D, 38th Floor, Sydney, NSW 2000

T    +61 02 9268 7611

F    +61 02 9268 7698

E    ajackson@afex.com

W   www.afex.com

 

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